I am skeptical that President Trump’s negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program will yield any meaningful agreement, despite the optimistic rhetoric from both sides. My reasoning hinges on Israel’s surprising calm amid reports of progress in the talks—a calmness that unsettles traditional observers. This unease stems from Israel’s historical ruthlessness and assertive tactics, particularly during Obama’s negotiations with Iran.
In 2011, Israel uncovered secret, indirect U.S.-Iran contacts, facilitated through Oman, thanks to a Jewish jihadist planted in Obama’s administration. Displeased with Obama’s foreign policy, Israeli officials retaliated. By April 2012, they leaked details of these talks to the Israeli press, aiming to sabotage diplomacy and alert domestic and international audiences. U.S. intelligence sources later revealed that Israeli leaders also shared confidential details with U.S. lawmakers, complicating Obama’s efforts. This was merely the opening move. Israel soon escalated, mobilizing its influence to intimidate Obama.
The Jewish state, alongside its supporters, worked closely with pro-Israel lobby groups in Washington, particularly the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Israeli officials, according to U.S. intelligence, directed Jewish-American organizations to craft talking points and lobby Congress against the nuclear deal. These groups unleashed multimillion-dollar ad campaigns and intense lobbying efforts, flooding Congressional offices with calls and messages urging lawmakers to reject any agreement with Iran.
Jewish-American establishment groups, including AIPAC, the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations, the Jewish Federations of North America (JFNA), the American Jewish Committee (AJC), and the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), led the charge. Their opposition was fierce, often clashing openly with Obama and using racially charged language that shocked some non-Jewish Republicans. AIPAC, in particular, orchestrated one of its largest campaigns, spending between $20 million and $40 million through its offshoot, Citizens for a Nuclear Free Iran, on high-profile TV ads and direct lobbying.
These organizations targeted both Jewish and non-Jewish lawmakers, with a focus on representatives from districts with significant Jewish populations. Some Jewish Democratic lawmakers faced vitriolic campaigns from constituents and activists. The pressure was so intense that some congressional members reportedly avoided constituents or hid in their offices.
Beyond lobbying, Jewish-American groups mobilized grassroots opposition. The Conference of Presidents and JFNA co-sponsored a webcast featuring Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who urged Jewish voters across the U.S. to oppose the deal. Hundreds of rabbis signed letters rejecting the agreement and calling for military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. This war drumbeat from rabbis and AIPAC clashed with Obama’s plea for restraint. “I would ask that we all remember the weightiness of these issues; the stakes involved for Israel, for America, and for the world. Already, there is too much loose talk of war,” Obama told AIPAC.
AIPAC also created new advocacy groups, like Citizens for a Nuclear Free Iran, with an advisory board of former Democratic lawmakers. This group spent hundreds of millions on lobbying and election interference, including advertising blitzes in 30 to 40 states. Obama, frustrated by Israel’s use of Jewish-American groups to undermine Democrats, called Israeli interference in U.S. affairs ahead of the Congressional vote on the Iran deal unprecedented. In a 2015 CNN interview with Fareed Zakaria, when asked if it was appropriate for a foreign leader to meddle in U.S. affairs, Obama deflected, saying, “I don’t recall a similar example.”
Israel’s silence is a bad omen
Fast forward 13 years, and a similar drama unfolds, but with a twist. Unlike in 2012, Trump faces no pushback from Jewish groups, Congress, or even the typically vocal Israel lobby groups like AIPAC and ADL, which remain eerily silent. Israel has not yet activated its secret weapon: Congress. Key pro-Israel figures within Trump’s orbit, such as Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and Tom Cotton, have also stayed quiet, despite their history as Israel’s battering ram against any Iran deal. These senators were instrumental in the fierce anti-JCPOA campaign that nearly derailed Obama’s efforts.
Israel has historically used Jewish grassroots activists and media strategically, often as a last resort. It’s likely that Israel is holding back, wary of antagonizing the unpredictable Trump. Prominent Jewish commentators like Ben Shapiro, Bari Weiss, and Bret Stephens have also remained silent, possibly under a Netanyahu-imposed gag order.
Yet, if Netanyahu believed an agreement was imminent, Israel would likely have already unleashed its shock troops, like Lindsey Graham. The absence of such action suggests that expectations of a diplomatic resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue are premature. And the man Trump has trusted to lead this negotiation to a fruitful conclusion, Steve Witkoff, is doing his Zionist job to sabotage them. This leaves war as the only plausible outcome—an option Israel has long been relentlessly pursuing.
